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September Run has a strangehold on this year's Newmarket with early prices suggesting she could start shorter than all bar Black Caviar and Weekend Hussler in the race this century. 

Her spring screamed Newmarket filly and her Lightning run was about as good a Newmarket trial as you will see. She is favourite for a reason, but she's a pass at prices at this stage.  

Swats That has been riding her coattails all season and will be there again just ready to pounce should the favourite falter. Great racing but the better bet to our eye comes in the Australian Cup where Fifty Stars looks to defend his crown. 

He backed up off a fast Blamey win to land the Australian Cup last year and he followed a similar path by running well in the Cantala and backing up to stretch Arcadia Queen in the Mackinnon. There is no Arcadia Queen in this Australian Cup - not even close... 

If it ain't broke don't fix Fifty Stars hits the Australian Cup on the quick turnaround from the quick Blamey where he ran at least as well (even a bit better) than he did last year. Prices around $4.50 seem very reasonable. 

For an each way play we are going to take a bit of a flyer at one in the Matron Stakes. 

Don'ttelltheboss has been terrific from hopeless spots of late. She is just desperate to be given a chance to win one and the inside barrier might just be the sort of thing that can see her settle a bit closer.  

Now she is pitched into a much deeper race, and her pattern from barrier one means she is going to need luck, but if she travels a bit handier from one and gets a seam at the right time she's going well enough to give these a fright at 25/1 and it's very easy to have her onside at those odds. 

THE MELBOURNE MAIL 

Bet Of The Day: Race 8 #3 Fifty Stars @ $4.50

Each Way Play: Race 7 #8 Don'ttelltheboss @ $26